Rate Cuts Ahead? What the Data Says About Inflation & Markets

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a shift at Jackson Hole last Friday, setting the stage for rate cuts after months of hesitation driven by tariff-related inflation concerns. But what does the data actually say? In this week's market update, we look at key indicators– commodity prices, energy costs, freight costs, and wage growth. The evidence points toward easing inflation pressures and supports the Fed’s evolving stance. With markets near all-time highs, many investors wonder if the gains are already behind us. We examine what typically happens when the Fed cuts rates with stocks near record levels, rising corporate profit outlooks, consumer spending power across income levels, and how companies are talking about recession risk on recent earnings calls. Together, the data and market history provide valuable context for navigating today’s environment.